Every generation accomplishes some impressive feat that changes the way we live lives which then becomes taken for granted. Often, these are technologies that enable new experiences. For our generation, the most obvious example is the internet which allows us to search and find vast quantities of information without leaving your seat. It was so significant that we named this current period of time as the information age. Because the internet has become so ubiquitous, it's sometimes hard to appreciate what it has enabled us to do. Twenty years ago, if you wanted to find out who won the Oscar in 1957, you'd most likely have to go to the library or call up that movie-loving friend, who likely used a reference book himself. Now, you can literally three click your way into IMDB or other numerous movie websites and extract that information.

The less obvious, but just as important is mobile telephony, or simply put, cell phones. Can you imagine how difficult multiple car road trips were in 1985?

Looking more into the past, there were things like:

The invention of radio: This was the first time you didn't have to bring content home in order to enjoy it.
The advent of automobile and the national highway system: You could travel at your own schedule at speeds well beyond horses.
Air travel becoming affordable: People can travel from any part of the world to another with in 24 hours.
The disappearance of infant mortality: During the early 20th century, scientists and doctors fought many of the leading child killing disease. It was the first time in history where people stopped expecting kids to die from simple sicknesses.

And of course I haven’t forgotten the other recent major technological inventions such as the TV, telephone, fax, and electricity.

All this brings out another way of looking into the future: what will we take for granted next?

In the near future, WiMAX and other high speed WAN technologies will make mobile internet the norm. People will come to expect information anywhere anytime and use this technology to settle bar bets on the spot.

However, beyond that, what can you imagine taking for granted?

Will personal robotics continue on this current trend and automate every remedial task at home? Will we some day come to expect all chores around the house to be done by servos and gears? Will one robot per household become a norm? (In 1990, did you think that most households in the US would have computers by 2007?)

Will AI take a discontinuous jump in competence so that computers can have meaningful conversation with humans? Can you imagine taking for granted having an AI agent that searches and answers such questions as: "Who won the Oscars in 1957?"

Will neural interfacing take off making typing on keyboards a thing of the past? Will future generations take for granted the ability to send and receive information straight from the brain?

Personally, I want to see teleportation during my life time so that we can cut all dependencies on planes, trains, and automobiles. However, can you imagine the political and cultural ramifications that would result today if people could go anywhere?

So, what will you take for granted next?

Labels: future

13 years ago, AT&T ran a series of commercials demonstrating the future and declaring that they are the company to bring people there. While I’m not entirely sure if AT&T was the company that brought any of this, a lot of what they predicted have come to reality:

Online Books - While showing the picture of the physical book was probably for theatrical effects (a text file would be rather boring), the move from paper to digital have been relatively slow because no one wants to read 150 pages on a computer screen. It’ll be interesting to see if the new E-ink readers will be the tipping point for this phenomenon.

Car Navigation - This is practically dead on (except for the screen being more 3D than it is / needs to be). What does AT&T have to do with this though?

Wireless data transfer - Sure you can send a “fax” from the beach with wireless internet, but you’re most likely sending an e-mail instead. Tablet PCs has been a popular topic but only time will tell if it actually has any market traction.

E-ZPass - Very spot on, but by 1993, people were working on this already.

Buying tickets online - Sure you can buy tickets online, but no one will ever use an ATM to do so.

Video Phone - This keeps coming back and back since the early 60s but has failed to get any acceptance. The technology is there, the infrastructure is there, the products are there; I think we can safely say people don’t want it. On a side note, when was the last time you used a pay phone?

Voice Activated Doors - Biometrics is becoming a hot topic now for the car industry but I think it’s years away before people can accept the technology as secure.

Digital Medical History - To be honest, I don’t know anything about this (does it exist now?). However, I think there will be an online database instead of the patient bringing in the data themselves (problem with losing the card or people being able to hack their doctor approved health history).

Web Conferencing - Yep. Spot on. I’ve attended meetings with bare feet.

Video on demand - Also spot on. But since when did on demand movies start from the middle when you select it? (Yeah, yeah, theatrical effect)

Online Classes - This also is happening now, but where is this student taking the class?

I think they missed one big factor when they planned this future: Home PC. At 1993, they probably didn’t think computers will become so omnipresent (and connected) that people would be taking online classes, buying concert tickets, and reading online books from home. Another item that was peculiarly missing: cell phones. I wonder if they kept it out for political reasons (was AT&T not in the business then?) or they didn’t think it would be much more than just a mobile telephony tool.

So, if you were to make this commercial today, what would you put in it?

PS Stephen Colbert's take on AT&T.

Labels: future